Is the world now heading to a good direction? This is a big question that we need to realize together. I am not an analyst who is an expert in the political, economic or military fields, nor a great speaker. So in this post I only present what I hear from the frenzy and uproar that occurs in our world. Of course from the viewpoint of a layman. If you scrutinize the news then the following is its frenzy :
1) USA vs China trade war.
The United States is one of the countries that once supported the free market, but is now very protective for the main reason because of the trade deficit. Naturally all countries tend to take protective measures if their economic growth is threatened. Usually this is normal for small and developing countries. I'm just shocked this is done by a country that has the number 1 economic power in the world. This is a kind of anxiety that China will compete with the US economy in the future.
The first point demanded by the United States from China is the protection of intellectual property. This is denied by China. But many people seem to label China as a plagiarist country. Is China the only one? I do not think so. It's just that no country is as successful as China in learning from the advancement of other countries. Humans if they want to be success tend to learn from successful people. This is natural, so is China.
The second point demanded by the United States from China is trade reciprocity by pressing China to patch the US trade deficit against China. I think this is contrary to the principle of free market where buyers are free to buy the desired product according to their needs and abilities. If the buyer wants to buy Chinese products then what's wrong? The United States should think about making competitive products so that buyers want to buy it, not by forcing the buyer to buy the product by political forces.
If I think deeper, I feel there is a hidden strategic goal behind the United States trade war attacks against China. Money is a key power. Economic power is the main foundation for building political stability, developing scientific research and military power. All of it need fund, right? It makes you feel confident to expand your influence. That is the foundation for a country if they want to do much, right? By attacking the economic power, then you attack the foundation of a country. On the other hand I feel that China is considering the Art of War by Sun Tzu, because in Chinese philosophy the war strategy is a form of art. I think it's an art to rival the United States and dominate the world.
2) Show of force.
I am pleased to hear that North Korea and South Korea are heading for a better direction, ending a ceasefire with a full peace treaty. But I'm disappointed to hear that to end the Korean War will require a tripartite agreement between North Korea and South Korea and the United States, and it is impossible only between the two Korea. I just don't think why if two people wants to make peace there must be approval from someone else. Doesn't the third person just want to show of force?
I read the news that Russian President Vladimir Putin while spoke in an annual state speech affirmed that Russia had developed a new type of weapon that more superior, such as underwater drone Poseidon, ICBM Sarmat, cruise missiles Burevestnik, hypersonic missile Avangard that cannot be blocked by any missile defense system in the world, and the S-400 air defense system that makes NATO members rowdy. Oh... clearly this is also a show of force that will provoke the opponent's reaction.
On the other hand, I read the news that the United States threatened to impose sanctions on countries that bought Russian military weapons. As we already know that India, China and Turkey has been threatened by sanction by buying Russian S-400. I think this is not fair. This is human rights. It's like forcing to buy "America First".
To the east, China is aggressively claiming ownership on the South China Sea territory. Something that is opposed by many countries. I think this is also a show of force. This provoke the reaction of the United States and Britain to show of force on the South China Sea with the slogan "Freedom of Navigation". I think this slogan is more properly interpreted "I challenge you".
Conclusion.
What does all that mean from the viewpoint of small countries, developing countries, and ordinary people like me? Well, it's like a game of throne. Be aware that winter is coming, as Indonesian President Joko Widodo said at the International Monetary Fund-World Bank annual meeting in Bali.
Don't worry, WWar III will come due to the throne.
ReplyDeleteI am sure the three are also afraid to die in vain.
DeleteTikno, no point worrying about all these macro level problems. We have our micro problems to solve all the time and if we do that successfully and with compassion we will survive any kind of macro problems that the world may throw at us. Ever since we have known each other the last few years, both of us have done this fairly well.
ReplyDeleteDisputes at the macro level will greatly affect the micro level (people of a country).
DeleteI wrote this post because I was moved by the arrogance and the throne games at the top level. I think this is one of the essence of why we're blogging, that is conveying our voices to the world. Because ordinary man don't have diplomatic channels other than through blogs.
Great message here
ReplyDeleteThank you.
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